Sunday, July 31, 2005

US Dollar Index 15 Year Seasonal Tendancy...August Bullish


US Dollar Index 15 Year Seasonal Tendancy......

We have an interesting upcoming week in store with the strong US GDP Data last Friday providing the FED the needed stimulus for their current Rate Hike campaign...the US Dollar Index has sold off to the latest positive US Data as the Market has been prepared for a Technical Correction...where the Majority are Positioning against the USD... beware for another North advance in USD has the 15 Year Seasonal Tendancy at work where a US Dollar Index Rally occurrs from the begining of August thru the 3rd week of the month. Therefore my Bullish USD Bias remains. A Great Week to All.....Iris

US GDP Fundamentals strong...USDollar Index Bull to continue

Pre-Open...7/31...12:01Pm EST

Hello Everyone..........

On Friday after the US GDP 2nd QTR Data release the Top of the Range breakouts were contained for Eur/Usd<>Cable<>Aud/Usd with the US Dollar Index consolidating its North advance and with the US GDP Data showing continued strength in the US Economy...the USD Bulls will relish in this and prepare for another North advance.

From Friday 7/29...prior tho US GDP Data........

The Single Currency US Dollar Index has been discounting the positive US Data with controlled Exits on USD Longs....thus the Market counter moves to positive Data...Safe Exits. On Friday US GDP will have whipsaws to clear the path for Eur/Usd<>Cable and the other Majors into upcoming Directional moves...and at Times such as these its best to let the Market tiddy up a bit until it proves its Course of Action....

Eur/Usd North breaks at 1.2165 will Target an advance onto 1.2260<>1.23........
Eur/Usd South breaks at 1.2080 will Target a decline to 1.20<>1.1980<>1.1950.
Cable North advance breaks at 1.7590 will Target 1.76<>1.7720....
Cable South decline break at 1.7480 will Target 1.73<>1.7260.

After US Data on FridayMorning these levels will set the next Directional course.

Saturday, July 30, 2005

Containment Zone/Entry Window Technique of Time/Price


A Containment Zone is were I see Time/Price to Reverse North or South...ie an Entry Window...were a shift in Directional Movement is about to occur and a Zone of Opportunity is Open whether North or South...with Stops placed above/below the Containment Zone/Entry Window to then trail into an Exit...be it 5/10/15/30 minutes into1hour<>1day<>3days whatever...if containment is at those levels then a Entry Window is opened at the Posted levels and forward...then Entries would scale into the Target levels were Exit is determined by Ones management thru successive Levels...to negate the Containment Zone...Price would move thru it within the current Directional Movement and take out the Stop.

When Time/Price moves thru the Containment Zone/Entry Window it is negated by the Stop being hit ...which means that the prior Zone acts as secondary Support/Resistance to the next Entry...for the prior Zone to become valid again containment within a retest of that Zone would Signal adding to Positions or confirmation that current Directional Movement from a higher/lower Entry will be sustained for the Target areas. Also setting a Reverse Limit Order Entry just above the Stop would attempt to capture back the initial Stop Loss being hit for more continuation until the next level is reached for a Counter-Trend Entry ...thus attempting to nullify the prior Zone/Stop Loss being triggered and re-Positioning for a better Entry Window.

A Containment Zone is a Support/Resistance Reversal Point in current Directional Movement for a High percentile Counter-Trend Entry thru a specific Range...ie a Sell/South<>Buy/North Window that captures a larger percentage of the Range of the move.

Ultimately Trading is about Directional Movement...that is the nucleus of Trading so therefore its dependant upon how that Dynamic is forming...as my Friend Currencia says..."you can only Enter in the Now and Exit in the Future"... and what if you could Enter in the Now and have predefined Targets that are not dependent upon Price...but Time and how current Directional Movement evolves to a Targeted Exit. That is how my proprietary technique on the Containment Zone/Entry Window functions...your focus is on the expansion/contraction in Directional Movement within the Trading day. Now couple that to the 24Hr Trading Day...the majority of volume in FX is done between London and New York...were the Asian Session will Trade 1/4 to 1/2 at times of the Range of the prior Sessions each day...on News or Central Bank Positioning more pronunced moves from Asian Session are obvious... especially as they challenge or surpass the total Range of the day. London and New York in FX is the largest Traded volume on the Planet...this is were Trading/Directional Movement makes 80%+ of the moves of the day and the Best Traders of the World compete...for me I have no particular Session for Entry as it is based on the contraction/expansion in volitility within Directional Movement within Time...that is were you Win or Lose.

The Best Time of day for Entries from my standpoint is on the above...Directional Movement and how that Dynamic is about to Position...sometimes its Asian...other Times it New York or London...its the Flow of Time into Price and isolating a Containment Zone/Entry Window at the Reversal/Continuation points within that 24HR period and Positioning into the upcoming Flow. If you prefer more controlled Entries...Asian Session is for you...if you can Enter on the Fly...London or New York...Exits also...but the caveat you must assess is I've gained X amount of Pips from this Range and based on current Directional Movement whats left in momentum and velocity to capture the highest percentage of the move before a retrace and will that retrace be within acceptable boundaries to continue on to my next predefined Target Zone...or should I Exit at that level ...Buy/Sell the retrace or Enter at a Higher/Lower level. Know matter how you analyze it its about Trading Directional Movement within Time...to an Entry/Exit and were currently as your calculating the chart in front of you at that moment in Time is the next opportune Window....Asian<>London or New York.........Iris

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